Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
